As millions of Kenyans still reel in shock following the sudden and catastrophic death of Raila Amolo Odinga, one sentiment cuts across the nation: the timing of his passing feels unspeakably cruel.
File photo. The late Raila Odinga at a past event.
Courtesy of The Nation
It is as though the lights were switched off without warning, while we were deep in the room, leaving us groping for direction—unsure how to stagger our way out or even how to switch them back on.
For decades, Raila was the constant in Kenya’s unpredictable political equation. His name was a rhythm, his voice a compass. To his supporters, he was Baba—the moral north star who embodied hope, resilience, and the endless fight for justice. His absence has plunged the nation, and especially his vast following, into a deep, disorienting darkness.
The elusive presidency was never out of sight...
The elusive presidency was never completely out of his line of sight. Despite multiple failed attempts, Raila’s political agility kept him relevant, even after moments when critics confidently declared him finished. After the 2022 elections, both opponents and weary supporters began to bury the idea of another run, citing age and fatigue—the exhaustion that follows hope deferred. Yet Raila remained defiant. His pursuit was not just for power, but for purpose—for what he termed the Third Liberation: a Kenya free from corruption, poverty, and historical injustice.
The Undying Dream of the Third Liberation..
Raila’s story is not that of a mere politician but of a liberator whose scars tell the story of Kenya’s democratic evolution.
From the dungeons of Nyayo House to the steps of Parliament, he carried the burden of a restless nation on his back. His fingerprints are etched across every major chapter of Kenya’s political history: the fight for multi-party democracy, the 2010 Constitution, and the enduring struggle for electoral justice.
In the 1980s and 1990s, when dissent was treasonous, Raila’s defiance inspired an entire generation. His alliance with reformists like Kenneth Matiba and James Orengo dismantled the one-party state, ushering in the era of political pluralism. For that, he secured his place among Kenya’s true reform icons.
Yet, the Third Liberation—the economic and social transformation he envisioned—remains an unfinished mission. His death halts that journey mid-sentence, leaving the torch flickering in uncertain hands.
The Glaring Void in ODM...
No vacuum looms larger than the one within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Raila, the party’s founder, soul, and unchallenged commander, never formally anointed a successor. ODM was not merely a political outfit—it was an identity, a cause, a religion to many. With Baba gone, that structure now trembles on shaky foundations.
Names like Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya, and Junet Mohamed have been floated as possible heirs, yet none possess the national stature or moral authority Raila commanded instinctively not even his older brother Oburu Odinga who has taken control ostensibly to steady the ship during this turbulent transition of the party leadership. In Luo Nyanza, ODM’s grip was total—its flag a symbol of belonging rather than partisanship.
Without a clear heir, internal feuds are almost inevitable, threatening to split the once-formidable movement into factions. The party now stands at a crossroads: either it reinvents itself beyond Raila’s personality or fades into history as a monument to a bygone political era.
The Future of the Broad-Based Government
Raila’s late rapprochement with President William Ruto, which birthed the idea of a “broad-based government,” surprised both allies and adversaries.
To some, it was a sign of statesmanship; to others, a reluctant truce. But beyond politics, it carried a symbolism—an olive branch extended for the sake of national healing.
Now, with his sudden exit, that delicate architecture wobbles. Raila was not just a participant but the bridge between competing interests. His moral weight gave the process credibility. Without him, mistrust threatens to undo the fragile coalition before it matures.
Will the dream of a truly inclusive government survive without the man who midwifed it? Or will it collapse under the familiar weight of political betrayal? Time, as always in Kenya’s politics, will tell.
The Political Matrix of 2027...
With Raila’s passing, the 2027 political landscape has been redrawn overnight.
For decades, he was the axis around which Kenyan politics revolved. Every contender—friend or foe—measured their strategy against his next move.
Now, a new and unpredictable matrix emerges. President Ruto may appear politically advantaged, but Raila’s absence also creates a vacuum that could invite new alliances and reinventions. Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, and younger leaders like Babu Owino and Edwin Sifuna will all seek to fill pieces of the vast space Baba leaves behind.
Yet, none may ever replicate his singular ability to blend defiance with diplomacyto be both the rebel and the statesman, the agitator and the unifier.
The Political Orphans of Luo Nyanza..
Nowhere is the sense of loss more profound than in Luo Nyanza—the beating heart of Raila’s political empire. For decades, his word shaped destinies. His endorsement could create governors and unmake MPs in a single breath. He was the moral custodian, the patriarch, the symbol of shared identity.
His death leaves behind a generation of political orphans—leaders who thrived under his guidance and protection. Many of them, stripped of that cover, will now have to navigate the treacherous political terrain on their own.
From Siaya to Kisumu, Migori to Homa Bay, uncertainty now hangs heavy. Who will speak for the region? Who will anchor its political voice in a country Raila once held in moral check?
The shocking demise of Baba will definitely send all and sundry to the drawing board, allies and foes alike. It will be interesting how it pans out post grief.
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